Loss of jobs and income has deepened the alienation and pessimism of working-class whites -- a group that is shrinking but still makes up about 4 in 10 voters. (Pollsters generally use lack of a college degree as a way to define the working class, since polls seldom ask about a person's occupation.) Among white working-class voters, the defeat Obama experienced in 2008 now threatens to become a rout.
Extensive polling by the Democratic firm Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner shows that through the George W. Bush years, whites without college degrees were, on average, about 7 percentage points more likely to call themselves Republicans than Democrats.
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Tuesday, November 01, 2011 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 4 News Desk 1 inches; 32 words Type of Material: Correction
Obama's prospects: A map with an article in the Oct. 30 Section A about President Obama's reelection chances showed Indiana as a state won by John McCain in 2008. Obama won Indiana.
For The Record
Los Angeles Times Sunday, November 06, 2011 Home Edition Main News Part A Page 4 News Desk 1 inches; 32 words Type of Material: Correction
Obama's prospects: A map with an article in the Oct. 30 Section A about President Obama's reelection chances showed Indiana as a state won by John McCain in 2008. Obama won Indiana.
But beginning in 2009, that gap yawned ever wider, reaching 20 points in 2010, when Republicans took control of the House. Ominously for Democrats, the gap has remained close to that level.
The reasons are not hard to discern: The Democratic message of government as a positive force for Americans runs smack against the experience of many without a college education.
For these voters, economic prospects "are still declining," said Democratic pollster Stanley B. Greenberg. Average paychecks for non-college-educated men, adjusted for inflation, are lower now than 30 years ago. The current poor economy has only made things worse, feeding a belief that government functions only for insiders with connections.
"I just don't feel like I can rely on government at all," said Christopher Kane, 41, a heavy equipment operator from the Northern California town of Brentwood. "It doesn't feel like anyone's reliable anymore. Unions, companies, no one does what they say."
Kane, who was a respondent in a recent USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll, voted for Obama in 2008 and said he did not completely fault the president for the economy because "he inherited such a mess."
But, he said, conditions have simply gotten worse, and he's come to agree with the GOP argument that government "just pisses the money away."
"It just gives you a real sense of helplessness."
In that view, Kane has a lot of company. A poll this spring for the Pew Charitable Trusts showed that blacks and Latinos were both more optimistic about their futures than were whites. Among whites, those without a college education were the most gloomy.
"The pessimism is extraordinarily deep," said Mark Mellman, the Democratic pollster who helped conduct the survey. Working-class voters "still want the government to take action," he said; "they're not necessarily antigovernment." The difficulty is convincing them that "policies will help them and people like them and not someone else who doesn't need the help."
Persuading voters to put aside that deeply felt pessimism can be done, but will be "a great challenge" for Obama, said Greenberg.
"I truly do believe the long-term demographic and cultural trends favor the Democratic coalition," he said. "But in the short term, we're not there yet. Not this year."
