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CNN, Gallup polls find opposite front-runners in presidential race

April 16, 2012|By Morgan Little
  • President Obama speaks at a news conference at the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia.
President Obama speaks at a news conference at the Summit of the Americas… (Saul Loeb / AFP/Getty Images )

Reporting from Washington — Contrasting the results of the first Gallup daily presidential poll, CNN and ORC International have found President Obama in possession of a 9-point lead over presumed Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

The 52%-43% split in favor of the president runs counter to Gallup’s results, which placed the former Massachusetts governor in the lead with 47% to Obama’s 45%.

Results of a poll delving deeper into the candidates themselves also leaned in Obama’s favor. Just 29% say Romney is more likely to take a stand for what he believes in, compared with 50% for Obama. And half those polled said Romney would be the most likely to shift his political stances for the sake of political opportunism, with 39% saying the same of Obama.

Obama’s 16-point lead over Romney among female voters was 2 points lower than it was in a CNN poll conducted a month ago, but fell within the margin of error. The influence of the feud between Hilary Rosen and the Romney campaign doesn’t appear to have significantly shifted opinion within the female demographic, at least according to these results.

The gaps between Romney and Obama’s supporters cut across both income and age, with those 65 and older being the only age group with a majority supporting Romney, and individuals earning less than $50,000 annually supporting Obama by a margin of 20%.

A strong performance on qualities such as honesty, confidence, likability and beyond could account for why 75% of Obama supporters say they are voting for him, as opposed to against Romney, but his incumbency brings along its own baggage. More than 60% of Romney supporters are voting directly against Obama, rather than in favor of the former governor. Only 29% of those polled think their minds could be subject to change before the election.

The CNN/ORC International poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday, in the wake of both Rick Santorum’s exit from the race and Rosen’s contentious remarks over Ann Romney’s employment history. The 1,015 adult respondents contained 910 registered voters, and the poll’s sampling error is plus or minus 3 points.

Gallup’s poll was conducted April 11-15 among 2,265 registered voters, with an identical sampling error. Those time differences, along with the size of the pool polled and the higher ratio of registered voters in the Gallup sample could account for the discrepancy between the two results.

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Original source: CNN, Gallup polls find opposite front-runners in presidential race

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