With several new polls this week showing that the presidential race in Paul D. Ryan’s home state has tightened since Mitt Romney chose him as his running mate, The Times has updated its battleground map to show Wisconsin as a tossup.
The map allows users to test their own predictions of the electoral college outcome.
So far, none of the nine states listed as tossups has moved off the map, and with the political conventions about to open, polling likely will be too unstable to make any serious calls until after any temporary “bounces” dissipate. So for now, President Obama appears to be able to count on 237 electoral votes while Mitt Romney can count on 191, and 110 are up for grabs. A candidate needs a majority of the electoral votes – 270 – to win.
Several states will bear watching in the weeks to come.
The Times map now has Michigan listed as leaning toward Obama. That’s consistent with most of the public polling in the state, including three recent polls showing the president with a 5- or 6-point lead. But at least one significant poll in July showed Romney with a 1-point advantage. If more such polls appear after the conventions, the state may move to tossup status.