Three years after "The Hurt Locker" and its director, Kathryn Bigelow, won Oscars, the hunt for Osama bin Laden thriller "Zero Dark Thirty" is putting its director back into the awards-season conversation. How will academy voters respond? Time for another session with the Oscar 8-Ball, our finely calibrated forecasting tool that looks into the minds and hearts of academy members.
It is decidedly so: Because Bigelow and Boal lowered a cone of silence around their film during production and afterward, no one knew quite what to expect when "Zero Dark Thirty" began screening Thanksgiving weekend. Almost immediately, the movie began vacuuming up best picture accolades -- first the New York Film Critics Circle, then the National Board of Review, then just about everyone else, save for the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. The awards and rave reviews have given the film a critic-fueled momentum not unlike that enjoyed by "The Social Network" two years ago. While that David Fincher film ultimately came up short on Oscar night, its nomination haul -- eight, including three eventual wins -- provides a useful comparison for Bigelow's movie. Nominations for picture, director, Mark Boal's original screenplay and lead actress Jessica Chastain will grab the headlines, with below-the-line recognition in editing, cinematography, sound editing and sound mixing possibly filling out the card. That'd be eight noms, equaling the take of Fincher's critics-group steamroller.