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UCLA economists predict slow recovery, accelerating in 2014 [Video]

September 20, 2012|By Ricardo Lopez

UCLA economists released their quarterly Anderson Forecast on Thursday. Times California economy reporter Ricardo Lopez moderated a Google+ Hangout on the U.S. and state's economy with senior economists at the forecast, David Shulman and Jerry Nickelsburg.

Shulman, who wrote the U.S. forecast, said the country is "muddling" its way through the recovery and that job growth has been tepid. He predicts job gains to be muted through 2013, with growth accelerating in 2014 as the housing market begins to recover.

Nickelsburg's report focused on the California economy. His forecast examined how the state's economy may be affected if the European debt crisis worsens and China's economic slowdown cause a steep drop-off in exports. The state's direct exports to Europe and China account for 25% of the state's total exports, Nickelsburg said.

If there is a drop in exports, Nickelsburg said the state could lose 165,000 jobs and reverse much of the job gains in the last year. Though an implosion of the Eurozone is unlikely, it is still not out of the question, he said.

Overall, both economists said to not expect huge pickup in the economic recovery any time soon -- both nationally and in California. The Golden State, however, has in recent months outpaced the country's job growth.

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ricardo.lopez2@latimes.com

Follow Ricardo Lopez on Twitter.

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