A laborer works under the Mulholland Bridge, which crosses the 405 Freeway… (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles…)
Last year in the run-up to Carmageddon, officials were downright apocalyptic about what the full closure of the 405 Freeway through the Sepulveda Pass would mean.
"It will be an absolute nightmare," Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa warned.
"Avoid the area like the plague," Councilman Paul Koretz advised.
But after all the dire warnings, the traffic mayhem never materialized. With another closure of a 10-mile section of the 405 planned for this weekend, officials are subtly retooling their message and hoping they can get similar results a second time around.
The fears promoted by public officials, with media help, in the run-up to last July's freeway shutdown clearly worked. But that very success carries the risk that this time motorists may ignore appeals to stay away. The closure, starting early Saturday morning, will allow the remainder of the Mulholland Bridge to be demolished as part of a $1-billion project that includes adding a carpool lane to the busy Westside freeway.
"The challenge for officials is actually greater this time because of people saying, 'We've heard this disaster message before,'" said Brian Taylor, coauthor of a UCLA study titled "Why it wasn't Carmageddon" prepared for the mayor's office.
The researchers' conclusion? "Dramatic messages of fear" will not work in the Carmageddon sequel. And public officials should embrace warmer rhetoric that appeals to civic pride, instead of cajoling motorists to stay away.
Crafting a more nuanced admonition entails "an interesting and complex social phenomenon," says Martin Wachs, coauthor of the study. The trick, researchers say, is to sound a loud enough alarm in the coming days to get people's attention and blend it "with extensive, hopeful messaging" that can reprise the cooperation achieved during Carmageddon I.
"We can't do what we did last time," Villaraigosa recently acknowledged. "This time around, we're not going to say, 'Folks, look, we're going to have the worst traffic ever.'
"What we're going to say is: 'What about another day without a car in L.A.? What about Angelenos accepting the challenge to stay out of their car?'"
No one is expecting calamity this time around. Transportation experts predict traffic volumes similar to or slightly greater than last year.
Still, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority is trying to spread word about the closure even more widely than last year, according to spokesman Marc Littman. The agency has spent about $150,000 on newspaper, online and radio advertising related to the shutdown, compared with about $100,000 last year, he said. Officials also have held about a dozen press conferences, issued public service announcements and have enlisted various elected officials and government agencies to post Carmageddon information on their websites.
More than 50 Clear Channel billboards are back in action. So are the electronic signs on freeways across the region — albeit with a slightly toned-down warning. A year ago, the signs flashed "EXPECT BIG DELAY." Now they simply say "EXPECT DELAY." A Caltrans spokeswoman said the wording change "was based on experience last year. We did expect big delays last year, and they didn't materialize."
This year, the agency is "hoping to keep the message accurate. We DO expect delays," she said in an email.
The news media, too, have dialed back coverage after predictions last summer — including that cars could be backed up to the Mexican border — proved overblown.
One difference this time is that the second closure hasn't attracted international media attention, Littman said. Overall, as a news story and in terms of public awareness, a 405 closure is no longer "uncharted territory," he said.
Some officials worry that if the public tunes out or discounts their pleas, Carmageddon could yet live up to its name. "There's still a lot of anxiety associated with a closure of this magnitude for all of the agencies involved," said Littman's colleague Dave Sotero. "We just don't want [the public] to become complacent."
One new tactic is promoting financial incentives intended to keep residents away from the closure area and encourage community engagement.
Westside businesses complained about sizable dips in income last July when people stayed home that weekend. This year, Metro is touting an interactive map on its website that includes about 300 businesses where patrons can receive 10% to 50% discounts during the closure. Also starting Wednesday, the Los Angeles Tourism & Convention Board plans to begin tweeting out 405 things to do Saturday and Sunday.
Metro's Carmageddon slogan has been tweaked, as well. "Plan ahead. Avoid the area, or stay home" has become "Plan ahead. Avoid the area, or eat, shop and play locally."