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President-elect Hassan Rouhani may be Iran's hope for moderation

The legal scholar and theologian has deftly appealed to more reform-minded Iranians. But it isn't clear whether his leadership style will result in policy changes.

August 03, 2013|By Ramin Mostaghim, Alexandra Sandels and Patrick J. McDonnell
  • Iran's President-elect Hassan Rouhani takes part in a parade marking Al Quds International Day in Tehran on Aug. 2.
Iran's President-elect Hassan Rouhani takes part in a parade marking… (Atta Kenare / AFP/Getty…)

TEHRAN — As a seminary student, he made a hazardous foray across the border into Iraq to meet his icon, the exiled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Years later, he joined Khomeini in France, eventually returning home after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. On Sunday, Hassan Rouhani will be sworn in as Iran's president, succeeding Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The styles of the incumbent and his successor couldn't be more different. But what everyone —in and outside Iran — wants to know is whether Iran's policies will change as well. That is far less clear. The biggest test will be trying to find common ground with the West on a subject Rouhani knows well — Iran's disputed nuclear program.

Rouhani, a white-turbaned legal scholar and theologian, has adopted "moderation" as his motto, a dramatic shift from his predecessor's bluster. Unlike Ahmadinejad, a blacksmith's son with little international exposure when he was elected, Rouhani is an intellectual who has represented Iran abroad. He holds an Iranian law degree and a doctorate from a British university.

At the heart of his candidacy in the June election was a paradox that he will have to confront as president. A consummate insider and conservative-leaning pragmatist, Rouhani played the insider-as-outsider card, securing a narrow majority in a fractured field.

He deftly appealed to more reform-minded Iranians beaten down in their perennial struggle with hard-liners. He was the sole cleric among the presidential finalists, yet the religious establishment was wary of his perceived liberal drift.

Many Iranians desperately seek a rollback of international sanctions imposed because of the nuclear program. The sanctions have contributed to rising prices and unemployment, especially for young people, many of them highly educated.

Even though he was one of the pioneering voices backing the mandatory wearing of the hijab, or veil, by women, he carries the hopes of those wanting reform. Recently, he has sharply criticized harassment of young people by the so-called morality police.

"Happiness," Iran's president-elect declared recently, "is our people's right."

And during the campaign, Rouhani accused the outgoing leadership of reveling in sanctions as a rebuke to the West while ignoring the resulting hardships.

"It's good to have [uranium] centrifuges running," Rouhani declared in the third and final presidential debate, "providing people's lives and sustenance are also spinning."

Rouhani, who previously served as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, has already signaled his refusal to abandon nuclear enrichment, a necessary step for atomic weapons development. Iran says its nuclear efforts are for peaceful purposes, such as energy generation. The Obama administration suspects that Tehran seeks nuclear weapons capability, and it has not ruled out a military attack.

Israel, the target of Ahmadinejad's most incendiary rhetoric, is not convinced that the new man will be any different. On Friday, Iranian news media quoted Rouhani during an annual pro-Palestinian rally as comparing Israel to a "wound" that "should be removed." The report prompted immediate condemnation from Israel. But Iranian media later acknowledged that Rouhani hadn't called for the destruction of Israel, and a video of the interview confirmed that he had been misquoted.

Brokering a nuclear deal will require persuading both hard-liners at home and doubters abroad to choose compromise over confrontation.

"He believes in protecting and maintaining the Islamic Republic, and strongly supports the uranium enrichment program," said Alireza Nader, a senior policy analyst at Rand Corp. in Washington. "But not at any price. Rouhani realizes the extent of Iran's economic and political crisis. It is important the U.S. gives him a fair chance to negotiate Iran out of the current impasse."

During more than three decades as a political insider, analysts say, Rouhani has shown an ability to shift with the times, seek out new allies, curry favor with the powerful, and adjust to changing circumstances.

He has served as a top military official and parliamentarian, and has held leading positions in the national security hierarchy. He is a protege of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who backed Rouhani's candidacy after hard-liners blocked his own comeback.

Rouhani also is a longtime associate of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's ultimate decision-maker on matters of state, although tension has been reported as Rouhani has distanced himself from the hard-liners.

"He has a managerial style of … emphasis on teamwork," Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Rouhani's deputy in Iran's national security council from 1997 to 2005, wrote in an email response to questions from The Times. "He is a strategist and planner … with a clear idea of reaching goals."

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