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Oscar nominations 2013: Who are the favorites to win?

January 10, 2013|By Glenn Whipp

"Lincoln" leads the field. Will its momentum carry through to Oscar wins? Here are the newly revised Gold Standard odds for the post-Ben Affleck/Kathryn Bigelow landscape.

PICTURE

"Lincoln," 10-9. Nominee kingpin, with nods in all the right categories. It was the movie to beat when the day began and its status is even more solidified now.

"Life of Pi," 4-1. Eleven nominations, including one for director Ang Lee. Lack of acting noms hurts.

"Silver Linings Playbook," 9-2. First film to get noms for picture, director, writing and all four acting categories since "Reds" in 1981. That said, "Reds" didn't win best picture, "Chariots of Fire" did.

"Beasts of the Southern Wild," 9-1. Benh Zeitlin's little movie that could was clearly loved by even more voters than pundits predicted. Could Fox Searchlight put it on the "Slumdog Millionaire" path to victory?

PHOTOS: Nominee reactions

"Amour," 10-1. Fifth movie to be nominated both for picture and foreign language film. Last time that happened, in 2000, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" won the foreign language category but lost in best picture. Pattern likely to repeat.

"Argo," 20-1. Quite well-liked, but apparently not quite enough.

"Les Miserables," 25-1. Eight nominations are nothing to scoff at, but the haul is less than many predicted after its Thanksgiving weekend bow. Its champions are loud and proud, but too few in number for the film to win.

"Zero Dark Thirty," 25-1. The snub of its director, Kathryn Bigelow, could be due to the film's late arrival. Or it could be a result of the many voters finding its depiction of torture to be inaccurate and offensive.

"Django Unchained," 50-1. Nomination will drive up an already healthy box-office take.

ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln," 1-3. Inauguration speech being written as we speak.

Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables," 30-1. Will he sing at the ceremony?

Denzel Washington, "Flight," 30-1. John Gatins' screenplay nom means he won't be the only member of the "Flight" team present.

Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook," 40-1. Voters clearly love the "Silver Linings" group. SAG ensemble award in the offing?

Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master," 50-1. Academy makes him eat his carrot.

OSCARS 2013: Complete list | Snubs & surprises | Reactions | Ballot | Trivia | Oscar Watch | Timeline| Full coverage

ACTRESS

Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook," 2-1. Front-runner since movie won the audience award at Toronto.

Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty," 5-2. Will voters respond to her CIA operative's strength or be put off by the character's emotional coolness? Film's serious subject matter plays in her favor.

Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour," 6-1. A great personal narrative (oldest lead actress nominee ever) combined with devastating acting turn makes her a spoiler to watch.

Naomi Watts, "The Impossible," 10-1. Like Riva, Watts' work hits voters in the gut. Long underestimated here, the movie's just now being widely seen.

Quvenzhane Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild," 50-1. Youngest best actress nominee just happy to be here. We are too.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln," 5-2. For the oratory and the moment he removes his wig.

Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook," 4-1. First chance in a long while to honor the legend.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master," 5-1. Film's strength in acting categories should not be taken lightly.

Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained," 8-1. Snagged latecomer spot over castmate Leonardo DiCaprio. Coming on strong, voters love his loquaciousness.

Alan Arkin, "Argo," 10-1. Well-liked actor plays one of Hollywood's own in a performance that avoided caricature. 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables," 3-2. Mild backlash against her theatrical turn indicates she's not the slam-dunk originally assumed. Still the one to beat, though.

Sally Field, "Lincoln," 5-1. If "Lincoln" sweeps the night, Field may have a chance to deliver another indelible Oscar moment.

Helen Hunt, "The Sessions," 15-1. Absence of costar John Hawkes spells trouble for chances.

Amy Adams, "The Master," 18-1. Four-time nominee has already won several critics prizes. First Oscar will have to wait, however.

Jacki Weaver, "Silver Linings Playbook," 30-1. Least distinctive role of the "Silver Linings" ensemble.

OSCARS 2013: Complete list | Snubs & surprises | Reactions | Ballot | Trivia | Oscar Watch | Timeline| Full coverage

DIRECTOR

Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln," 2-1. Strong chance for third directing Oscar and first since "Saving Private Ryan" 14 years ago.

Ang Lee, "Life of Pi," 5-1. He and Spielberg are the only nominees to show up here and with Directors Guild nominations.

Michael Haneke, "Amour," 8-1. Revered Austrian's film plays well to older academy members.

David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook," 12-1. Class of 2010 nominee receives a well-deserved return invite.

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