Consumer Confidence Index

Orders to factories for big-ticket manufactured goods jumped unexpectedly in December, good news amid signs that the U.S. economy may be tipping toward a recession. Still, analysts said that the 5.2% growth in orders -- though potentially boosting industrial output in coming months -- probably came from overseas demand and that domestic growth faced continuing threats from tight credit and mortgage markets that have forced consumers to retrench.

Consumer confidence slid to its lowest level in 16 years, factory output went flat and there were signs of a pick-up in inflation, according to data released Friday -- an ominous combination for an economy on the verge of recession. Slowing growth coupled with sharply rising prices is particularly challenging for policymakers because the main tool used to stimulate the economy -- cutting interest rates -- tends to fuel inflation.

Consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March as tight credit markets, rising prices and worsening job prospects made many worry that the economy had fallen into recession. The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said its consumer confidence index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. That was far below the 73 expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson/IFR.

Confidence among U.S. consumers fell to a 26-year low after unemployment increased and gasoline prices surged, threatening the spending that accounts for more than two- thirds of the economy. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 63.2 this month. It was the weakest level since 1982, when the jobless rate approached 11%, the worst since the Great Depression.

Stocks ended moderately lower Tuesday as concerns grew about the effect of high fuel costs on consumers and corporate profits. The New York-based Conference Board, a private business group, said its consumer confidence index came in at 50.4 this month, down sharply from 58.1 in May and well below the 56.5 reading expected on average by economists. The index came out after a dismal report early Tuesday on U.S. home prices and a profit warning late Monday from UPS that cited high oil prices.

Amid the gloom of higher gasoline and food prices and a slumping housing market, Americans appear to be looking for a bit of hope. Their outlook has brightened a bit, even though they remain more gloomy about the economy than they have been in 16 years, a private research group said Tuesday. The New York-based Conference Board said its consumer confidence index stands at 51.9 for July -- about half of what it was a year ago -- but the reading was slightly higher than the revised 51.

American consumers lost confidence in September as they saw the credit crisis deepen, a sign they will curtail spending, according to a survey released Friday. Meanwhile, a government report showed consumer spending was lower than initially estimated in the second quarter, slowing economic growth. The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of household sentiment declined to 70.3, lower than forecast, after a reading of 73.1 in early September.

Layoffs, plunging home prices and tumbling investments have pushed consumer pessimism to record levels in October, a private research group said Tuesday. The Conference Board said the consumer confidence index fell to 38, down from a revised 61.4 in September and significantly below analysts' expectations of 52. That's the lowest level for the index since the Conference Board began tracking consumer sentiment in 1967, and the third-steepest drop. A year ago, the index stood at 95.2.

Consumers were feeling confident in January: The job market was chugging along and oil prices were down. Their optimism may dwindle, however, on concerns that job and wage growth may slow. The Conference Board said that its Consumer Confidence index edged up to 110.3 in January from a revised 110 in December.

New evidence arrived Wednesday that the American economy was heating up, thanks to confident consumers and improving housing and job markets. And workers are benefiting through higher wages. The Commerce Department reported Wednesday morning that inflation-adjusted economic growth surged to 3.5% during the fourth quarter, up from 2% in the previous quarter and above average for an expansion.