Earthquakes

With a full gray beard that spills down onto his chest, all Allan Lindh needs is a flowing white robe to make him look like a guru descended from the mountaintop. It would be in keeping with the visual image if he suddenly began uttering incomprehensible incantations. But instead he is one of the handful of people who can speak lucidly about a subject that has vexed scientists for decades. As chief seismologist at the U.S. Geological Survey's western headquarters in Menlo Park, Calif.

David Elliot is alarmed. And not just because he has an unusual battery-operated horn attached to his West Hills home that is designed to scream a loud warning if an earthquake is coming. He's worried because he has another 7,000 of them stored in a Santa Monica warehouse. And nothing--not last year's Northridge earthquake, not last month's Japanese temblor, not the new predictions that Los Angeles is closer than earlier believed to a major quake--seems able to shake loose any interest in them.

At a conference here a few days ago to assess the feasibility of making accurate earthquake predictions, a Japanese scientist said he might have detected a precursor to the Kobe earthquake. If his suggestion were valid and precursors could be demonstrated as occurring consistently before other temblors, it would be a spectacular discovery, opening the way to quake forecasts. But in the real world of seismology, quake prediction is still a dream.

Earthquake monitoring would be threatened under a proposed congressional budget cut, according to Caltech officials in Pasadena. A House Appropriations subcommittee has recommended an $8.6-million cut in the U.S. Geological Survey's $14-million budget for earthquake research. The recommendation will go to the House floor in mid-July, said officials at Caltech, which collaborates with the U.S. Geological Survey on earthquake research.

Just when you thought it was safe to forget about those granola bars and canned peaches you meant to stock up on after the Northridge earthquake, along comes the deadly 7.6-magnitude quake that left thousands homeless in Mexico City. Think of it as a wake-up call. It's time to get serious about emergency supplies. Earthquake preparedness consists of a series of precautions in the form of survival kits, which usually can be started or replenished with supplies already on the shelf.

At least three earthquakes struck Northern California near Red Bluff on Saturday, but there have been no reports of damage or injuries. The U.S. Geological Survey said the latest quake had a preliminary magnitude of 4.8 and occurred at 3:13 p.m. about 28 miles west of Red Bluff and 37 miles southwest of Redding. The first earthquake struck the same area at 9:18 a.m. and had a preliminary magnitude of 4.4. An earthquake with a 3.3 magnitude was recorded at 3:10 p.m. A dispatcher with the Red Bluff Police Department said she didn't feel any of the temblors.

Some scientists say the Hayward fault, long the focus of geologists as the most likely candidate for the San Francisco Bay area's next big earthquake, might be even more dangerous than thought. Geologists analyzed gradual changes in stress on the deepest parts of faults in the area. They found that several faults, including the southern portion of the Hayward fault, might be more prepared to rupture than previously estimated. The research suggests current earthquake forecasts for the area also might underestimate the danger on two other faults: the Rodgers Creek fault that runs from San Pablo Bay north past Santa Rosa and the northern portion of the Calaveras fault from Sunol to the Danville area.

Two earthquakes struck hours apart in Rwanda and neighboring Congo, killing at least 39 people, some of them inside a Rwandan church that collapsed, officials said. Nearly 400 people were injured. A magnitude 6.0 quake struck the Democratic Republic of Congo, formerly Zaire, the U.S. Geological Survey reported. Bukavu Mayor Raisi Kunda said five people were killed and 149 injured. The second quake, a 5.0, hit a few hours later near the countries' border in Rwanda, where 34 people were killed and 231 wounded, according to a Health Ministry hotline.

A magnitude 4.9 earthquake struck Monday near the Mexican border town of Mexicali, but no injuries were reported, officials said. The earthquake was felt across Imperial County and as far north as the Palm Springs area, said a spokeswoman for the Caltech Seismological Laboratory. The quake, which hit about 10:30 a.m., was centered approximately 20 miles southeast of Mexicali, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The area was hit Monday by at least 5 aftershocks, one of them registering a magnitude 3.9. The earthquake was part of a cluster of quakes that have rocked the Mexicali area in recent days.

An estimated 5.0-magnitude earthquake centered in northern Baja California shook the U.S.-Mexico border region about 100 miles east of San Diego on Tuesday. There were no immediate reports of any injuries or damage, authorities said. The quake struck at 2:41 p.m., officials said.