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Economic Forecasts

BUSINESS
December 11, 2008 | David Pierson, Pierson is a Times staff writer.
Two million jobs could be lost nationwide next year under the weight of a severe global recession that shows no sign of relenting soon, UCLA forecasters say. "We see this as longer-lasting than most recessions," said Edward E. Leamer, director of the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, which was released today. "The job market will remain weak." The nation's unemployment rate will rise to 8.5% by late 2009 or early 2010, according to the forecast -- further straining a job market that matched a 34-year high last month by shedding 533,000 positions.
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BUSINESS
December 10, 2008 | David Pierson, Pierson is a Times staff writer.
The nation's worsening economy will continue to hemorrhage jobs next year, prolonging a deep recession that won't recover until at least 2010, forecasters at Chapman University said Tuesday. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to climb from an estimated 5.7% this year to 7.8% next year as consumers pull back their spending, sending businesses already hurting from the credit crunch into further despair.
BUSINESS
December 9, 2008 | Times Wire Services
A leading advertising forecaster lowered expectations for ad growth in 2008 for the second time in two months but said a mild recovery should begin late next year. ZenithOptimedia now expects global growth of 1.3% this year over 2007. In October, the British ad company had forecast growth of 4.3%, which itself was a reduction from the June forecast of 6.6%. For 2009, ZenithOptimedia now expects a 0.2% reduction in ad spending, not the 4% growth projected in October.
BUSINESS
October 25, 2008 | Times Wire Reports
The U.S. economy will have two or three quarters of "negative growth" once global financial systems stabilize, General Electric Co. Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt said. "You might have a two- or three-quarter negative growth and then a slow pullout," Immelt said at New York University's Stern School of Business. GE, the biggest U.S. issuer of commercial paper, said it planned to use a new short-term funding facility from the Federal Reserve when the program starts next week, throwing its weight behind Fed efforts to unfreeze the credit markets.
BUSINESS
September 24, 2008 | Marc Lifsher and Peter Y. Hong, Times Staff Writers
Housing prices will hit bottom some time next year, but the California economy will be in distress for months to come, according to a closely followed UCLA economic report scheduled to be released today. In a series of dire predictions echoed by experts throughout the state, the UCLA Anderson Forecast says that unemployment will continue to increase, consumer spending will decline and tax revenues will plummet.
BUSINESS
September 23, 2008 | From the Associated Press
Holiday sales are expected to grow at the slowest pace in six years as shoppers worry about jobs, the housing and stock markets and high gasoline and food prices, according to a forecast from the National Retail Federation being released today. The outlook from the retail trade group joins other weak holiday predictions issued so far that probably will lead to aggressive discounting and pre-Thanksgiving sales blitzes as stores try to pry dollars from frugal shoppers.
BUSINESS
August 13, 2008 | Joe Bel Bruno, The Associated Press
Stocks skidded Tuesday despite another drop in oil prices as downbeat news from financial companies aggravated the market's anxiety about the effect of the credit crisis on the economy. The Dow Jones industrials fell nearly 140 points. The latest reminder of continuing troubles for banks and brokerages came late Monday when JPMorgan Chase said that less than halfway through the third quarter it had lost $1.5 billion on home loans and mortgage-backed securities in the period, compared with $1.1 billion for all of the second quarter.
BUSINESS
June 19, 2008 | From the Associated Press
Nearly one-third of the country's top executives expect to cut payrolls in the coming months, reflecting fallout from the housing bust as well as soaring energy prices. At the same time, a survey by the Business Roundtable, released Wednesday, showed that most executives expect sales and capital investment to remain at current levels or even improve over the next six months.
BUSINESS
June 18, 2008 | Roger Vincent, Times Staff Writer
Under pressure from falling home values, high oil prices and rising unemployment, the economy in California and the nation will perform anemically in the coming months -- but there still won't be an actual recession, UCLA forecasters say. "I am holding on to what is now a shaky view: no recession this year," said economist Edward Leamer, director of the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, which is being released today.
BUSINESS
March 18, 2008 | From Times Wire Services
Famously bullish Goldman Sachs Group Inc. stock strategist Abby Joseph Cohen has stopped publicly forecasting the level of the Standard & Poor's 500 index. Cohen, 56, gained celebrity for her optimistic predictions during the 1990s and for referring to the U.S. economy as "Supertanker America," suggesting it could steam through global crises. She was named the top strategist in Institutional Investor magazine's surveys in 1998 and 1999. But she failed to predict the 2000-02 bear market.
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