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Economic Forecasts

June 19, 2008 | From the Associated Press
Nearly one-third of the country's top executives expect to cut payrolls in the coming months, reflecting fallout from the housing bust as well as soaring energy prices. At the same time, a survey by the Business Roundtable, released Wednesday, showed that most executives expect sales and capital investment to remain at current levels or even improve over the next six months.
June 18, 2008 | Roger Vincent, Times Staff Writer
Under pressure from falling home values, high oil prices and rising unemployment, the economy in California and the nation will perform anemically in the coming months -- but there still won't be an actual recession, UCLA forecasters say. "I am holding on to what is now a shaky view: no recession this year," said economist Edward Leamer, director of the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, which is being released today.
March 18, 2008 | From Times Wire Services
Famously bullish Goldman Sachs Group Inc. stock strategist Abby Joseph Cohen has stopped publicly forecasting the level of the Standard & Poor's 500 index. Cohen, 56, gained celebrity for her optimistic predictions during the 1990s and for referring to the U.S. economy as "Supertanker America," suggesting it could steam through global crises. She was named the top strategist in Institutional Investor magazine's surveys in 1998 and 1999. But she failed to predict the 2000-02 bear market.
January 17, 2008 | Tom Petruno, Times Staff Writer
Is a recession a serious risk -- or is it mostly in Wall Street's mind? Financial markets have descended into a major funk in the last two weeks, driving key stock indexes to their lowest levels in more than a year. But some analysts say the action in stocks and bonds is overstating the chances of grave trouble in the economy. And they contend that the Federal Reserve, Congress and the Bush administration are being goaded by markets to take economic-stimulus measures that may be costly, excessive and even unnecessary.
January 9, 2008 | From Bloomberg News
Global economic growth will slow for a second straight year in 2008 as tighter credit conditions and higher oil prices weaken expansions in the U.S., Japan and Europe, the World Bank said in an annual forecast. The world economy will grow 3.3% this year, down from an estimated 3.6% pace in 2007 and 3.9% in 2006, the bank said. The U.S. economy, the world's largest, will expand 1.9%, compared with 2.2% last year, it said. Japan's gross domestic product is forecast to increase 1.
December 5, 2007 | From Reuters
U.S. chief executives' view of the economy improved in the fourth quarter, although they have become far more concerned about energy prices than they were a year earlier, according to a survey by the Business Roundtable released Tuesday. The group said that its quarterly CEO Economic Outlook Index rose to 79.5 in the quarter, from 77.4 in the third quarter. It is below the 81.9 reading in the fourth quarter of 2006. Anything above 50 indicates growth.
November 24, 2007 | TOM PETRUNO
Peter Schiff and David Tice don't do what they do for the love it gets them. They are two of the most bearish investment professionals in America. Their outlook for the U.S. economy and stock market is beyond grim. Schiff, who heads brokerage Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Conn., sees the dollar and stock market collapsing and the value of American per-capita economic output falling below that of Greece. Tice, who manages the Prudent Bear mutual fund in Dallas, likewise predicts that U.S.
November 20, 2007
Almost two years into his tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke is still figuring out how to talk to Wall Street. Offhand comments about interest rates -- to Congress, to the media, to CNBC anchor Maria Bartiromo at a White House correspondents' dinner -- nudge the markets up or down. Each time he opens his mouth, it seems, someone compares him to his oracle-like predecessor, Alan Greenspan, often unfavorably.
November 14, 2007 | From Bloomberg News
Laurence Fink, who helped create the market for mortgage-backed securities, said the credit losses that had cost banks and securities firms $45 billion were about to get worse. Fink, chief executive of New York-based fund manager BlackRock Inc., said Tuesday at an investor conference that "many institutions don't understand what the credit crunch is going to do to earnings and their balance sheet." Financial stocks rallied Tuesday after Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
September 25, 2007 | From Bloomberg News
Global economic instability stemming from credit market turmoil in the U.S. is "likely to be protracted," the International Monetary Fund said Monday, five months after predicting little chance of a "major dislocation." "The potential consequences of this episode should not be underestimated," the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability Report, released in Washington.
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