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Economic Forecasts

February 18, 2009 | Roger Vincent
The declining Southern California economy may bottom out as soon as this summer, but more financial grief is coming as local industries struggle to cope with the recession, a prominent business trade group said in a forecast to be released today. Economic news this year will be "mostly bad," according to the 2009-10 forecast by the Kyser Center for Economic Research at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. The state's economic downturn is expected to hit bottom before the end of 2009, but when growth resumes it will be moderate at best, the Kyser Center said.
February 17, 2009 | Tom Hamburger and Jim Puzzanghera
A $7.2-billion provision in the economic stimulus bill to extend high-speed Internet service to the rural U.S. and other underserved areas has been hailed in Congress as the 21st century equivalent of government programs that brought electricity and modern highways to every corner of the country. Others think the benefits may be overstated -- especially the notion that every dollar invested will produce a $10 boost to the economy.
January 29, 2009 | Associated Press
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao brought cautious optimism to the World Economic Forum on Wednesday, predicting that his country will achieve its target of 8% economic growth this year despite the global financial meltdown. Wen called for enhanced U.S.-China cooperation to address the issue, even as he and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin obliquely criticized the United States, blaming a relentless pursuit of profit for the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
December 21, 2008 | Peter Nicholas
Warned that the economy may get considerably worse, President-elect Barack Obama has more than tripled the size of the economic stimulus package he embraced during the campaign and is aiming to create or save 3 million jobs, up from 2.5 million, transition officials said Saturday. Obama's team is crafting a massive new economic stimulus package to reach his revised job goal.
December 11, 2008 | David Pierson, Pierson is a Times staff writer.
Two million jobs could be lost nationwide next year under the weight of a severe global recession that shows no sign of relenting soon, UCLA forecasters say. "We see this as longer-lasting than most recessions," said Edward E. Leamer, director of the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, which was released today. "The job market will remain weak." The nation's unemployment rate will rise to 8.5% by late 2009 or early 2010, according to the forecast -- further straining a job market that matched a 34-year high last month by shedding 533,000 positions.
December 10, 2008 | David Pierson, Pierson is a Times staff writer.
The nation's worsening economy will continue to hemorrhage jobs next year, prolonging a deep recession that won't recover until at least 2010, forecasters at Chapman University said Tuesday. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to climb from an estimated 5.7% this year to 7.8% next year as consumers pull back their spending, sending businesses already hurting from the credit crunch into further despair.
December 9, 2008 | Times Wire Services
A leading advertising forecaster lowered expectations for ad growth in 2008 for the second time in two months but said a mild recovery should begin late next year. ZenithOptimedia now expects global growth of 1.3% this year over 2007. In October, the British ad company had forecast growth of 4.3%, which itself was a reduction from the June forecast of 6.6%. For 2009, ZenithOptimedia now expects a 0.2% reduction in ad spending, not the 4% growth projected in October.
October 25, 2008 | Times Wire Reports
The U.S. economy will have two or three quarters of "negative growth" once global financial systems stabilize, General Electric Co. Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt said. "You might have a two- or three-quarter negative growth and then a slow pullout," Immelt said at New York University's Stern School of Business. GE, the biggest U.S. issuer of commercial paper, said it planned to use a new short-term funding facility from the Federal Reserve when the program starts next week, throwing its weight behind Fed efforts to unfreeze the credit markets.
September 24, 2008 | Marc Lifsher and Peter Y. Hong, Times Staff Writers
Housing prices will hit bottom some time next year, but the California economy will be in distress for months to come, according to a closely followed UCLA economic report scheduled to be released today. In a series of dire predictions echoed by experts throughout the state, the UCLA Anderson Forecast says that unemployment will continue to increase, consumer spending will decline and tax revenues will plummet.
September 23, 2008 | From the Associated Press
Holiday sales are expected to grow at the slowest pace in six years as shoppers worry about jobs, the housing and stock markets and high gasoline and food prices, according to a forecast from the National Retail Federation being released today. The outlook from the retail trade group joins other weak holiday predictions issued so far that probably will lead to aggressive discounting and pre-Thanksgiving sales blitzes as stores try to pry dollars from frugal shoppers.
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