March 18, 2008 |
Famously bullish Goldman Sachs Group Inc. stock strategist Abby Joseph Cohen has stopped publicly forecasting the level of the Standard & Poor's 500 index. Cohen, 56, gained celebrity for her optimistic predictions during the 1990s and for referring to the U.S. economy as "Supertanker America," suggesting it could steam through global crises. She was named the top strategist in Institutional Investor magazine's surveys in 1998 and 1999. But she failed to predict the 2000-02 bear market.
March 11, 2008 |
Brushing aside conventional wisdom, UCLA economists say California and the nation will survive the housing slump and job losses without plunging into recession -- although it will still be miserable for many Americans. "We are holding firm: no recession this time," UCLA Anderson Forecast Director Edward Leamer said in a report being released today.
January 30, 2008 |
The International Monetary Fund cut its 2008 forecast for world growth Tuesday, saying the global economy will deliver the weakest performance in five years as U.S.-originated financial strains intensify. The IMF said no country would escape fallout from the crisis in the U.S. sub-prime mortgage market, where loans made to less creditworthy borrowers were packaged into securities by Wall Street firms and sold around the world.
January 17, 2008 |
Is a recession a serious risk -- or is it mostly in Wall Street's mind? Financial markets have descended into a major funk in the last two weeks, driving key stock indexes to their lowest levels in more than a year. But some analysts say the action in stocks and bonds is overstating the chances of grave trouble in the economy. And they contend that the Federal Reserve, Congress and the Bush administration are being goaded by markets to take economic-stimulus measures that may be costly, excessive and even unnecessary.
January 9, 2008 |
Global economic growth will slow for a second straight year in 2008 as tighter credit conditions and higher oil prices weaken expansions in the U.S., Japan and Europe, the World Bank said in an annual forecast. The world economy will grow 3.3% this year, down from an estimated 3.6% pace in 2007 and 3.9% in 2006, the bank said. The U.S. economy, the world's largest, will expand 1.9%, compared with 2.2% last year, it said. Japan's gross domestic product is forecast to increase 1.
December 5, 2007 |
U.S. chief executives' view of the economy improved in the fourth quarter, although they have become far more concerned about energy prices than they were a year earlier, according to a survey by the Business Roundtable released Tuesday. The group said that its quarterly CEO Economic Outlook Index rose to 79.5 in the quarter, from 77.4 in the third quarter. It is below the 81.9 reading in the fourth quarter of 2006. Anything above 50 indicates growth.
November 24, 2007 |
Peter Schiff and David Tice don't do what they do for the love it gets them. They are two of the most bearish investment professionals in America. Their outlook for the U.S. economy and stock market is beyond grim. Schiff, who heads brokerage Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Conn., sees the dollar and stock market collapsing and the value of American per-capita economic output falling below that of Greece. Tice, who manages the Prudent Bear mutual fund in Dallas, likewise predicts that U.S.
November 23, 2007 |
As President Bush spoke about the state of the nation's economy recently in the century-old Grand theater in New Albany, Ind., his words were as cheery as the vaudeville acts that once played there. But the storyline beyond the stage is closer to film noir. Gasoline? More than $3 a gallon in most of the country, up more than 85 cents from a year ago. Housing prices? Falling. Mortgage payments? On the rise. Financial markets? Up, down, up, down. The dollar? Down. Way down.
November 20, 2007
Almost two years into his tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke is still figuring out how to talk to Wall Street. Offhand comments about interest rates -- to Congress, to the media, to CNBC anchor Maria Bartiromo at a White House correspondents' dinner -- nudge the markets up or down. Each time he opens his mouth, it seems, someone compares him to his oracle-like predecessor, Alan Greenspan, often unfavorably.
November 14, 2007 |
Laurence Fink, who helped create the market for mortgage-backed securities, said the credit losses that had cost banks and securities firms $45 billion were about to get worse. Fink, chief executive of New York-based fund manager BlackRock Inc., said Tuesday at an investor conference that "many institutions don't understand what the credit crunch is going to do to earnings and their balance sheet." Financial stocks rallied Tuesday after Goldman Sachs Group Inc.