Economists

For three months they acted like buttoned-down bankers, studying global stock market fluctuations and changes in the consumer price index and boning up on unemployment rates and inflation indicators. For an intense 15 minutes they acted like financial whiz Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve Bank's Open Market Committee, debating whether short-term interest rates should go up or down.

A friend of mine settling into a new home with his family once asked me to be the house economist. Along with the nanny, the cleaner and the gardener, he thought an economist would be a useful addition to the household -- someone to turn to when pondering which car insurance to buy or the best way to allocate time on the PlayStation 2. Alas, he lived quite far away and I didn't fancy the commute.

Economists are reputed to be a gloomy lot. The standard economic essay today is more than likely to mention America's fatal (fill in the blank: competitiveness, inflation, savings rates, cost of capital, etc.). A notable exception has been Prudential-Bache's Edward Yardeni, who has spent three years churning out one essay after another on "New Wave economics"--economics based on a premise that the business cycle, with its inevitable downturn, is no longer relevant.

While Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman work to quell Pentagon objections to the companies' planned $11.6-billion merger, an Irvine economist fears that post-merger consolidation could affect many of the 50,000 jobs at the firms and affiliated businesses in Southern California. Peter Navarro, an economics professor at UC Irvine, is urging state and federal lawmakers to intervene to prevent another large-scale aerospace job exodus.

The nation's economy will slide into a mild recession by early next year--if one hasn't already begun--and the rebound will be sluggish at best, three economists said Friday. And Orange County, which nearly missed the last mild recession in 1980 because of its vigorous economy--is likely to be hit hard this time around, warned one member of the panel addressing the annual Orange County Economic Outlook Conference.

WASHINGTON - The economy's unexpected contraction at the end of last year showed that "fiscal cliff" fears and a sharp drop in defense spending pushed the moderate recovery off track, highlighting the precarious nature of the country's economic revival. The nation's total economic output shrank at an annual rate of 0.1% in the last three months of the year, the first such pull-back since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists were surprised but predicted the drop was a temporary detour that would not send the U.S. veering toward another recession.

The White House prediction Friday that the deficit would hit a record $1.47 trillion this year poured new fuel on the fiery argument over whether the government should begin cutting back to avoid future inflation or instead keep stimulating the economy to help the still-sputtering recovery. But increasingly, economists and other analysts are expressing concern that the United States could be edging closer to a different problem — the kind of deflationary trap that cost Japan more than a decade of growth and economic progress.

If you weren't already hopelessly cynical about American politics, here's the perfect chance for you to wake up, slowpoke. The presidential campaign is running full bore, meaning there is virtually no chance of hearing constructive conversations about policies that will affect our lives for years to come. 'Tis the season of partisan exaggeration and simplification, multimillion-dollar super PAC distortions, and bold, inspired lack of specificity, particularly when it comes to jobs and the economy, a centerpiece of this election.

Two prominent Western economists who had been advising the Russian government on its free-market reforms quit Friday in a demonstration of despair over the inflationary course they believe President Boris N. Yeltsin's new Cabinet is about to set. "We can no longer assist the Russian government," professors Jeffrey Sachs of Harvard University and Anders Aslund of the Stockholm School of Economics said in a statement.

Unlike the rest of Southern California, home sales in Ventura County slumped last month, although prices continued to climb, a sign, economists said, that a slow-down in the building of new homes is catching up with the county. Sales across the county fell 7.2% compared with June of last year, while the median price was up 4.5% to $255,000, very close to the record price in the county. That compares with jumps in Orange and Los Angeles counties, which had home sales rise 1% and 7%, respectively.