Edward E Leamer

Two million jobs could be lost nationwide next year under the weight of a severe global recession that shows no sign of relenting soon, UCLA forecasters say. "We see this as longer-lasting than most recessions," said Edward E. Leamer, director of the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, which was released today. "The job market will remain weak." The nation's unemployment rate will rise to 8.5% by late 2009 or early 2010, according to the forecast -- further straining a job market that matched a 34-year high last month by shedding 533,000 positions.

Two million jobs could be lost nationwide next year under the weight of a severe global recession that shows no sign of relenting soon, UCLA forecasters say. "We see this as longer-lasting than most recessions," said Edward E. Leamer, director of the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, which was released today. "The job market will remain weak." The nation's unemployment rate will rise to 8.5% by late 2009 or early 2010, according to the forecast -- further straining a job market that matched a 34-year high last month by shedding 533,000 positions.

For three decades, UCLA economist Edward E. Leamer has told academic colleagues things they don't want to hear. He has gotten into scrapes, taken some rhetorical blows and come back to tussle again. If Leamer had a personal song, it probably would be Frank Sinatra's "My Way." Now Leamer, 57, as the director of UCLA's nationally respected business forecasting group since last year, has a higher public profile.

For three decades, UCLA economist Edward E. Leamer has told academic colleagues things they don't want to hear. He has gotten into scrapes, taken some rhetorical blows and come back to tussle again. If Leamer had a personal song, it probably would be Frank Sinatra's "My Way." Now Leamer, 57, as the director of UCLA's nationally respected business forecasting group since last year, has a higher public profile.

Re "Privatize Social Security; Here's Why," Commentary, Oct. 16: One simple question for Edward E. Leamer and other advocates of privatizing Social Security: Name one major private pension plan that provides for cost-of-living adjustments in its benefit to retirees. All major pensions receive expert, professional investment advice on their portfolios and are unable to provide COLAs. How are individual workers, without this advice, to outperform them? WILLIAM HOHRI Lomita

Robert M. Williams, a retired business economics professor and founder of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, died Thursday of heart failure. He was 88. Williams, who served on UCLA's business school faculty for more than 30 years, opened the economic forecasting operation now known as the UCLA Anderson Forecast in 1952. The center remains one of the nation's few university-based economic forecasting groups, and its predictions are followed by business analysts across the country.

Do Americans know what they want from U.S. foreign policy? A fascinating Times Mirror poll released last month suggested that U.S. public opinion is quite unsettled on this point. Even more remarkable, perhaps, was the scarcely more formed consensus among the nation's influentials--the so-called "chattering class" of intellectuals and policy leaders.

UCLA forecasters predict anemic economic growth well into 2003 as the state and nation continue their slow recovery from last year's downturn. But they say a second recessionary dip is unlikely despite a spate of gloomy news that has sent Wall Street reeling of late. War jitters, slumping leading indicators and a decline in consumer confidence have heightened concerns that the recovery is stagnating.

Gasoline prices were down this week, but behind the scenes some economists are worried that a jump in the price of crude oil could slow the recovery. Average pump prices in California fell for the fourth straight week, according to the Energy Department's weekly survey of filling stations. But with oil futures inching toward $75 a barrel, analysts said the retail gasoline declines may be very short-lived. Oil futures have bounced between $65 and $75 a barrel for several months, but now it looks as though prices may soon go higher.

Eric S. Broida wants to trade up. He has been eyeing a multimillion-dollar house near his Pacific Palisades home and thinks it might be a bargain. Eventually, that is. The 4,600-square-foot house has languished on the market for six months. The sellers have cut the asking price several times, slashing it from $4.6 million to $3.6 million. When the price falls by an additional $400,000 or so, Broida will be ready to pounce.

The nation's factories slowed last month to their most sluggish pace in nearly 18 years, reflecting a broad manufacturing downturn and raising deeper concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. Figures from the Federal Reserve on Friday showed that the portion of the nation's industrial capacity being put to use fell to 77.4% in May. That's the lowest mark since it stood at 77% in August 1983, during the Reagan administration. In a related report, the Fed said production at U.S.