Holiday Season

Retail industry groups are predicting a subdued holiday season, with smaller gains than in 2010, as consumers struggle with prolonged economic worries. The International Council of Shopping Centers on Wednesday forecast that U.S. holiday sales would post a moderate gain, with sales expected to increase 2.2% during the November-December period compared with the same period last year. The group said retail momentum had been good lately but that there were economic roadblocks ahead that could dampen sales.

After a poor holiday season, J.C. Penney Co. is revamping its strategy by retooling its store format, marking down its merchandise and simplifying its promotions. "We are rethinking, we are reimagining, and if we find we have picked up some bad habits through the decades, we will leave them far behind," Chief Executive Ron Johnson told industry analysts Wednesday. The retailer will adopt a simple pricing model and do away with the hundreds of sales it has sprinkled throughout the year.

Dressing for the holidays is part of the season's fun. But forget the images you see in fashion magazines and on feel-good television commercials. In Southern California, the weather seldom requires swaddling in a plaid cashmere scarf, chunky fleece-lined boots, nubby cable sweater and peacoat. And we try to be savvy enough to just say no to a tacky Christmas sweater (unless we mean to wear it in an ultra-cool, ironic way). So how in this land of seasonless dressing does one add holiday cheer when the weather outside is far from frightful?

Remember when seeing an Apple Inc. iPad on a bus, an airplane or the subway was a startling new experience? Now you might be startled not to see one. Over the holiday season, so many people bought tablets for each other (and, presumably, themselves), that U.S. tablet ownership nearly doubled among adults, to 19% in January from 10% a month earlier. The rate is growing quickly: In May 2010, shortly after the debut of the iPad, only about 3% of consumers over age 16 owned tablets, according to survey information from the Pew Internet & American Life Project.

'Tis the season to be jolly, but the only jolly person I've come across is a Santa Claus-and he gets paid for it. SEAMAN JACOBS Beverly Hills

Kmart, which heavily promoted its layaway options during the last two holiday seasons, is expanding the program in anticipation of another tough Christmas. The extended layaway program allows customers to select their items and make biweekly payments over 10 to 12 weeks, an increase from eight weeks; items are picked up after they've been paid in full. The discount chain is also making more items eligible to be placed on layaway, such as washers, dryers and other big-ticket items.

It's tempting at this time of year, with worn-out Christmas tunes blaring nonstop through every grocery store, hair salon and shopping mall from here to the Atlantic, to believe that, musically speaking, there's nothing new under the holiday sun. But you've never really heard "Jingle Bells" until you've heard it sung by Tuvan throat singers in an arrangement that sounds like bluegrass from one of the outer rings of Saturn. That's one of the sonic surprises that's likely to greet audiences this weekend when forward-gazing banjo player Béla Fleck brings his band, the Flecktones through Southern California on a brief holiday tour highlighting music from their Grammy Award-winning 2008 album, "Jingle All the Way. " For that collection, which snagged the pop instrumental album award two years ago, 11-time Grammy winner Fleck and his genre-blind associates did what they'd been doing for nearly two decades: They threw out the rule book, abandoned all sense of musical convention and let their inspiration run wild.

After a holiday season marked by uncertainty and discounts, early sales figures coming out of the nation's malls, big-box stores and supermarkets showed improvement in a range of retail categories. Total retail sales from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 improved 3.6% from the same period a year earlier, according to data released Sunday by SpendingPulse, an information service of MasterCard Advisors. That figure includes traditional holiday-shopping destinations such as apparel and electronics chains as well as outlets such as grocery stores, furniture sellers and drugstores.

Here is a roundup of alleged cons, frauds and schemes to watch out for: Hot toys ? Most years, popular toys sell out at stores across the country during the holiday season, creating an opportunity for con artists, the Better Business Bureau warned in a bulletin, " 'Tis the Season for Holiday Scams. " Thieves will occasionally advertise those red-hot toys on Craigslist or EBay, at inflated prices, but fail to deliver the goods once they've received the money. The bureau suggests that consumers attempt to deal only with local sellers on Craigslist and arrange to meet in person to pay for the goods.

It's Goldilocks time for the nation's toy merchants: Not too pricey, but not too cheap. Innovative, but still fun to play with. For the thousands of retail buyers at the nation's largest toy fair this week, the challenge is to find toys that are just right -- and will stay that way by the time the holiday season rolls around. Barbie, Beanie Babies and last year's breakout toy Zhu Zhu Pets are here, with new looks or new gimmicks. The latest version of classic board game Monopoly will feature a circular board and fake credit cards.

Hollywood dropped the ball in 2011, as the movie business saw a decline in ticket sales and attendance fell to a 16-year low. As most in the industry had anticipated, year-end figures indicated that receipts in the United States and Canada dropped about 3% compared with 2010 to $10.2 billion, according to Hollywood.com. About 1.28 billion people headed to the multiplex in 2011, a decline of roughly 4% from last year, when 1.33 billion went to the cinema. "The issues that keep me up at night about moviegoer attendance and our audience are certainly not lack of appetite for the movies," said Brad Grey, chairman and chief executive officer of Paramount Pictures, which had the biggest box-office gross of any studio in 2011 with $1.96 billion in domestic ticket sales.

Most years, in the days following Dec. 25 (and, to a lesser degree, many of the major holidays, such as July 4 and Memorial Day), several readers write to The Times to express their displeasure over what they view as not enough coverage of the holiday. This Christmas was no different. Reader Ana Barbure of Hermosa Beach thought something significant was missing from Sunday's paper: a holiday greeting. "I was extremely disappointed to see that the Sunday paper did not wish readers a happy Christmas," she wrote.

A Beverly Hills real estate broker is waiting for escrow to close on two upscale properties, but that won't happen until after Christmas. So what is a powerhouse agent to do to generate some quick spending money for holiday shopping? This one hocked her diamond Patek Philippe watch at a Beverly Hills pawnshop for cash. She'll reclaim her $15,000 timepiece when the deals close, said Jordan Tabach-Bank, chief executive of 73-year-old Beverly Loan Co. "Never before have we seen so many affluent people needing cash," he said.

Holiday shipments are up this year as delivery outfits including UPS, FedEx and the U.S. Postal Service scramble to get packages and cards delivered during their busiest week of the year. Thursday was the busiest day of 2011 for the brown-suited elves at United Parcel Service Inc., who delivered nearly 26 million items. That's roughly 300 deliveries a second, up 60% from the parcel shipping company's normal daily average. The company will handle an estimated 120 million shipments during the week before Christmas, up from the 113 million sent this time last year.

As the clock counts down to Christmas Day, retailers have begun a big push to snare procrastinating shoppers searching frantically for last-minute gifts and hoping for final-weekend deals. Relishing the prospect of many all-day shoppers Saturday, stores across the nation are also extending hours, cutting prices and renewing bargain offers. Toys R Us stores nationwide began an all-day-all-night marathon that began Tuesday and continues until 10 p.m. Christmas Eve. That's a day longer than last year's endurance test.

After four years without a job and two years living in a Motel 6 in Inglewood, Jay Payne is Christmas shopping for the first time in a long while. His three children, ages 7, 13, and 15, have asked him for a Nintendo 3DS gaming console and a PlayStation system, gadgets the 37-year-old single father has frantically tried — and failed — to budget for. Payne, who landed a parking lot security job this month, is hunting for gifts in the few places...

ATM Safety With the holiday season upon us, people will be hitting their automated teller machines more than normal to pay for those gifts. Police officials said a disproportionate share of ATM robberies occur at machines located at building corners. These corners create blind areas from which an assailant can sneak up on a customer, officials said. ATMs nearer the middle of a wall are safer.

As retailers head into the all-important holiday season, they have reason to be optimistic: Months of solid sales are widely expected to carry through to the end of the year, when shoppers are most likely to open their wallets. Positive holiday performance could have a far-reaching effect. With consumer spending accounting for about 70% of the nation's economic activity, robust sales could breathe life into what has been a sluggish year so far for the broader economy. Many industry analysts are predicting a good — but not great — holiday season.

We Americans pride ourselves on our religious pluralism and toleration. Although presidents do feel obliged to end every speech with the title of an Irving Berlin song ("God Bless America"), by and large they adhere to the Founding Fathers' ideal of separation of church and state. But contrary to this general rule there each year arises the exceptional custom of White House Christmas cards. Should the president and first lady really be issuing messages to celebrate a religious holiday that not all Americans celebrate?

FAMILY Children will have a chance to interact with Santa's antlered transportation team by petting and feeding them (not to mention posing for photos with them), at the only live reindeer appearance in the Southland this holiday season. Other activities include cookie, stocking and dreidel decorating, and opportunities to visit with the jolly Saint Nick himself. Malibu Country Mart, 3835 Cross Creek Road, Malibu. 12-4 p.m. Sat. Free. (310) 456-7300. http://www.malibucountrymart.com.