Leading Economic Indicators

A yardstick of U.S. economic activity was unchanged in October, halting a decline that began in June and suggesting that the nation's poor financial health may be stabilizing. Separately, the Labor Department said Thursday that weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level in four months. The nation's gradually improving employment outlook helped offset weaker consumer attitudes last month, leaving the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators flat at 111.4. It fell a revised 0.

The U.S. economy is likely to grow in a "choppy" manner through the summer and autumn, the Conference Board said Friday as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators rose a surprisingly strong 0.8% in May. The reading for May came in ahead of expectations, following a downwardly revised drop in April of 0.4% from the initially reported 0.3% drop. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.5% improvement in May. The largest contributions to the index, which is composed of 10 weighted indicators, came from the interest-rate spread, consumer expectations and housing permits, more than offsetting the negative contribution from supplier deliveries.

A key forecasting gauge for the U.S. economy rose by a larger-than-expected 0.3% in December, a research group's report showed Tuesday, suggesting moderate growth in the months ahead. The rise in the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators topped Wall Street expectations of a 0.2% increase, but followed a reading for November that was revised downward to show no change.

The stock market has lost some of its swagger, and it seems unlikely to regain it any time soon. A six-month rally that sent Wall Street's major indexes up more than 45% from their March lows has hit the wall. While months ago investors welcomed even modest signs that the economy had slowed its decline, now traders won't settle for anything less than signs of actual growth before they'll buy stocks with any enthusiasm again. "There's no catalyst to push the market higher right now," said Brett D'Arcy, chief investment officer at CBIZ Wealth Management Group in San Diego.

A key barometer of future economic trends pointed on Wednesday to a slowdown in the vibrant U.S. expansion, and new-home sales fell to a 2 1/2-year low. The index of leading economic indicators was unchanged in June, after falling 0.1% in May and holding steady in April, the Conference Board, a business research group, said. A separate Commerce Department report said the number of new homes sold in June fell 3.

The government's key economic weather vane has taken its worst turn in almost three years, the Commerce Department said Friday. The real news: This time, the index of leading economic indicators just might be right. "Rather than being the leading indicators, they're often the misleading indicators," said Michael Penzer, a senior economist at Bank of America in San Francisco. "A lot of economists don't take them seriously."

A private-sector measure of the economy's health showed the largest drop in a year, and although new jobless benefit claims fell for the second straight week, they remain near the highest levels since 2002. The reports are the latest evidence that the languishing U.S. economy remains stuck in low gear. The New York-based Conference Board said Thursday that its monthly forecast of future economic activity fell 0.7% in July, far more than the consensus estimate of a 0.2% decline by Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

A forward-looking measure of the U.S. economy rose for a second straight month in December, lifted by gains in stock prices and consumer confidence. The index of leading economic indicators increased 0.2% after rising a revised 0.3% in November, the Conference Board said.

The economy's steady but cautious growth is set to continue beyond the holiday shopping season, according to a private report released Tuesday. The index of leading economic indicators, a key gauge of future economic activity, rose 0.2% in October, the sixth straight monthly gain, according to the Conference Board, the private research group that monitors the economy. "This modest increase . . .

Reports on manufacturing and housing this week will probably show that the U.S. economy in May, although still in a recession, took additional steps toward establishing a recovery this year, economists said. A 1% drop in industrial production last month, based on the median of 68 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey, mainly was due to auto-industry shutdowns that swamped gains elsewhere, analysts said.

The economy's health improved for the first time in five months in September as supplier deliveries and new orders strengthened, a private research group said Monday. The New York-based Conference Board said its monthly forecast of future economic activity rose 0.3%, a better reading than the 0.2% drop expected by Wall Street economists who were surveyed by Thomson/IFR. The index had fallen a revised 0.9% in August and 0.7% in July.

A private-sector measure of the economy's health showed the largest drop in a year, and although new jobless benefit claims fell for the second straight week, they remain near the highest levels since 2002. The reports are the latest evidence that the languishing U.S. economy remains stuck in low gear. The New York-based Conference Board said Thursday that its monthly forecast of future economic activity fell 0.7% in July, far more than the consensus estimate of a 0.2% decline by Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

California's moribund construction and real estate industries helped push the state unemployment rate to 6.8% in May, its highest level in nearly five years. The state Employment Development Department reported Friday that joblessness in May rose six-tenths of a percentage point from the previous month and was a dramatic 1.5 percentage points higher than in May 2007. And the outlook is likely to get worse for California -- at least for the rest of the year, experts said.

A private business group says its index of leading economic indicators inched higher for the second month in another sign that higher fuel and food prices, tighter credit and a depressed housing market are stifling the economy. Separately, the number of newly laid-off workers filing for unemployment benefits remained at worrisomely high levels despite dropping slightly last week. The New York-based Conference Board said Thursday that its gauge of economic indicators rose 0.

Pending home sales unexpectedly increased in April to the highest reading since October, an industry group said Monday, but they remain more than 13% below the year-earlier period. The National Assn. of Realtors' seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes rose to 88.2 from a March reading of 83, the lowest since the index was started in 2001. The index stood at 101.5 in April 2007. Wall Street economists polled by Thomson/IFR had predicted that the index would remain steady at 83. A reading of 100 is equal to the average level of sales activity in 2001.

Regional Economic Index Posts Monthly Gain: An index designed to gauge regional economic activity six to nine months ahead posted its second consecutive monthly gain in September, according to California State University, Long Beach. The university's index of regional leading economic indicators rose to 95.8 in September from 95.7 in August. Four of six measures of economic activity--building permits, stock prices, help-wanted ads in The Times, and the U.S. index of economic indicators--rose.

Southern California's economy will grow modestly in the next three to six months, thanks in part to an expected boost from housing construction, according to an indicator to be released today. Cal State Fullerton said its Southern California index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3% in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter. Four of the indicator's seven components were positive, led by a "relatively large" increase in regional building permits, the report said.

Manufacturing in the U.S. shrank less in May than forecast, further evidence that international demand for American-made goods was keeping factories busy amid the domestic economic slump. The Institute for Supply Management said Monday that its factory index rose to 49.6 from 48.6 in April. A number below 50 indicates contraction, and a number greater than that denotes expansion. Production expanded for the first time in three months, while a measure of prices rose to the highest level since 2004, the group also reported.