Oil Demand

LONDON - OPEC, source of more than a third of the world's oil, cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year as a worsening economic outlook curbs consumption in developed economies. The revision from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in a report on Tuesday follows reductions by other forecasters, such as investment bank Barclays Capital, as slowing growth hits consumers and businesses. "Dark clouds over the economy are already impacting the market's direction," OPEC said in its monthly report.

LONDON - OPEC, source of more than a third of the world's oil, cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year as a worsening economic outlook curbs consumption in developed economies. The revision from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in a report on Tuesday follows reductions by other forecasters, such as investment bank Barclays Capital, as slowing growth hits consumers and businesses. "Dark clouds over the economy are already impacting the market's direction," OPEC said in its monthly report.

Global demand for oil will grow this year at its fastest rate since 1980, but OPEC's pledge to pump more crude should help ease the pressure on prices, the International Energy Agency said. U.S. crude prices peaked this month at more than $42 per barrel, driven by fears about security in Saudi Arabia and uncertainty about whether major producers would provide more crude.

Oil market bulls aren't giving up without a fight. Crude futures fell to as low as $112.61 a barrel early Wednesday after the government said U.S. oil inventories last week jumped 9.39 million barrels, to an 11-week high of 305.9 million, confirming that there's no shortage of supply. But prices rebounded, and the September futures contract closed up 45 cents at $114.98 a barrel, its second straight daily gain. Oil hadn't been up for two consecutive days since mid-July. The market got a psychological boost from Goldman, Sachs & Co. after the brokerage's commodity analysts reiterated their prediction that crude would rebound to $149 a barrel by the end of the year.

Global demand for crude oil fell last month, and OPEC's effort to shore up oil prices threatens to choke off growth in an already fragile world economy, a respected industry survey said Friday. Oil inventories in importing nations have risen but are still low, contributing to market instability and volatile prices, the International Energy Agency reported.

U.S. demand for oil dropped for the first time in seven years in 1990, depressed by higher prices after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the slowing economy and warm weather, the American Petroleum Institute reported Friday. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency unveiled an emergency supply plan Friday in Paris aimed at cushioning its members from oil shortages in the event of war. Under the plan--which would be set into motion as soon as fighting broke out in the Persian Gulf--an additional 2.

China's implied oil demand nudged up a minimal 0.1% in November from a year earlier, quashing expectations that growth in demand by the world's second-largest crude consumer would revive at year's end. Imports of crude oil slid to the second-lowest level since January and exports of heavier products rose, as the effect of measures designed to keep fuel in China appeared to fade.

Overall U.S. oil demand dropped 2.6% in November from year-ago levels in face of higher fuel prices and the slowing economy, the American Petroleum Institute said today. The United States is the world's largest oil-consuming nation and the No. 2 oil producer after the Soviet Union.

The increase occurred as deliveries of home heating oil and diesel fuel picked up and offset a decline in gasoline usage, the American Petroleum Institute reported. Strong air traffic levels bolstered demand for kerosene jet fuel and utilities generated more electricity in October, raising deliveries of residual fuel oil, the industry trade group said. In October, U.S. oil demand edged up to 15.68 million barrels a day from 15.61 million barrels a day in the same 1984 month.

* China's annual trade surplus is set to reach $150 billion this year, bursting past last year's record $109.8 billion as the country's exports continue to surge, a government report said. The report by the Commerce Ministry said exports were likely to hit $960 billion by the end of 2006, a 26% increase from 2005. * The International Energy Agency cut its estimates for global oil demand this year and next because of weaker-thanexpected consumption in China.

Oil supplies will remain tight despite record prices that have reduced demand, according to the International Energy Agency, and its executive director said Tuesday that the world was in the grip of its third "oil price shock." Downsizing its estimate of how much oil will reach the market, the IEA predicted that supply would exceed projected demand only by 2 million barrels a day -- a thin cushion. The IEA is the energy watchdog for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a grouping of the world's most-industrialized countries.

Re "Gut instinct isn't science," Opinion, July 5 When I am asked whether I believe in the Big Bang or evolution or global warming, I try desperately to explain that "belief" has no role in the validity of such scientific theories. I want to thank David P. Barash profusely for giving me far better words to explain the difference between science and "truthiness." JANET DREYER Pasadena * One of the realities global inhabitants face but don't seem to realize is oil depletion.

* China's annual trade surplus is set to reach $150 billion this year, bursting past last year's record $109.8 billion as the country's exports continue to surge, a government report said. The report by the Commerce Ministry said exports were likely to hit $960 billion by the end of 2006, a 26% increase from 2005. * The International Energy Agency cut its estimates for global oil demand this year and next because of weaker-thanexpected consumption in China.

Oil companies and other investors are spending a collective $100 billion on new oil refineries that could alleviate the current bottleneck in refining capacity -- and eventually translate into a small cut in the price of gasoline, a top project financier said here Sunday. Will Rathvon, global head of project finance for Britain's Standard Chartered Bank, said that more than 30 new or expanded refineries will come on stream over the next decade, adding at least 6.

U.S. and world oil demand growth in the second quarter is expected to be stronger than previously forecast, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday, which could affect OPEC's decision on whether to cut oil output during the period. In its monthly forecast, the Energy Department's analytical arm increased its estimate for U.S. oil demand growth during the April-June period by 180,000 barrels a day to 20.

China's implied oil demand nudged up a minimal 0.1% in November from a year earlier, quashing expectations that growth in demand by the world's second-largest crude consumer would revive at year's end. Imports of crude oil slid to the second-lowest level since January and exports of heavier products rose, as the effect of measures designed to keep fuel in China appeared to fade.

Oil Demand Expected to Soar, but Not OPEC Profits: Despite higher demand this year, with supplies at record levels and Iraq talking to the United Nations about a temporary resumption of exports, cash-strapped OPEC producers will see few gains. Non-OPEC producers are expected to pump a hefty 2 million barrels per day more than last year, outpacing the rise in world demand of 1.6 million barrels a day forecast by the International Energy Agency.

Oil Demand Slump Predicted: Demand, now high enough to absorb OPEC production at 19-month highs, will crumble once the Northern Hemisphere winter ends, the International Energy Agency said. The Paris-based agency, which monitors the oil market for Western nations, said demand will drop by 3 million barrels per day by the second quarter of 1992. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced 23.

Global demand for oil will grow this year at its fastest rate since 1980, but OPEC's pledge to pump more crude should help ease the pressure on prices, the International Energy Agency said. U.S. crude prices peaked this month at more than $42 per barrel, driven by fears about security in Saudi Arabia and uncertainty about whether major producers would provide more crude.

Global demand for crude oil fell last month, and OPEC's effort to shore up oil prices threatens to choke off growth in an already fragile world economy, a respected industry survey said Friday. Oil inventories in importing nations have risen but are still low, contributing to market instability and volatile prices, the International Energy Agency reported.