Orange County Economy

As 1992 began, economists and many business people thought the year held all the promise of brightly wrapped packages under a Christmas tree. Experts who study the Orange County economy at three local universities agreed that there would be an improvement by midyear: Layoffs would end, incomes would grow faster than inflation, and consumers would regain confidence in the economy and begin spending, reviving the drooping fortunes of retailers, restaurateurs and home sellers.

Orange County's new economy, with its full employment, growth companies and stock market wealth, has left many lower-income workers stalled and disgruntled with their jobs, a Times Orange County poll has found. Overall, the county's employees are far happier than the average U.S. worker, and seven in 10 of its managers and professionals are "very satisfied" at work, the poll found.

The first of the season's economic forecasts for Orange County was delivered Friday at Cal State Fullerton. This, the third such report by the university's Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies, was pessimistic about Orange County's economic recovery. On a statewide level, signals are mixed.

Encouraged by strong overseas sales of their high-technology and medical products, Orange County employers likely will add 10,000 jobs to their payrolls this year, according to a Chapman University report released Thursday. That employment increase plus higher-than-expected levels of consumer and business spending in the first months of the year led university economists to predict far more dramatic 1994 growth for the county than they had forecast in December.

The recession that plagued the nation in 1990 and 1991 lingered in Orange County for another 2 1/2 years and is still reluctant to leave, according to economists at Cal State Fullerton. In its annual "Orange County Economic Outlook" report, released today, the university's Institute for Economic & Environmental Studies foresees improvement through the first nine months of 1995, but at a glacially slow pace.

Orange County's surging economy will slow next year as the Asian financial crisis tightens the spigot on exports and the national economy weakens. But a building boom will offset some of the damage. That was the outlook presented Thursday by Chapman University economists in their closely watched annual economic forecast. "The sharp growth will plateau out," said Chapman President James Doti.

Kenneth Dean worked steadily in Orange County for years. But Dean, 50, has been out of a job for two weeks now--victim of a growing economic malaise striking hard at what has been one of the bulwarks of the county's economy--construction. A union plumber, Dean is one of thousands of construction workers who have been thrown out of work this summer because of the housing slowdown in the county.

Like many Orange County residents, David Meirovitz is often stuck in traffic. But compared to a few years ago, Meirovitz is less concerned about congestion and more worried about simply surviving his commute intact. "Traffic is not appreciably worse, but crime is," Meirovitz, a dentist, said while lunching near his office here. "I may be upset that it takes me five extra minutes in traffic, but I'd rather get to where I'm going than be carjacked, mugged or the victim of a drive-by shooting."

With the departure of its largest employer, the city of Fullerton and its businesses will be hit hard as the effects of Hughes Aircraft's plant-closing decision ripple through the Orange County economy over the next few years. Although Hughes' action represents Orange County's largest-ever plant closure, economists say that it is softened somewhat by plans to send some workers to other Hughes sites nearby, the growth of other high-technology companies and increased retraining programs.

A year ago next week, Dec. 6, Orange County's government filed bankruptcy amid widespread predictions that the county and all of California would pay a terrible price for the carelessness of this otherwise wealthy and industrious area. But as the anniversary approaches, the most evident fact about Orange County is its vibrant economy.