Political Statistics

This is vote counting the old-fashioned way. There are no giant screens flashing instant results, no multicolored charts proclaiming front-runners, trend lines and magic numbers. Iraq's watershed election, widely acclaimed as an inspiring example of incipient democracy amid a raging insurgency, has entered a more prosaic but no less critical phase: the final counting.

Amid all the postelection tumult, it's easy to lose sight of what President Bush did -- and did not -- accomplish in his reelection victory this month. Bush didn't build as commanding a presidential majority as some coverage has suggested, but he did significantly strengthen the Republican hold on Congress.

HART'S LOCATION, N.H. -- The nation's first election day votes were cast and counted just after midnight today in this mountain hamlet, with President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry each receiving 15 votes. Ralph Nader received one. The communities of Hart's Location and Dixville Notch since 1948 sporadically have been taking advantage of a state law that allows communities to close polls early if all registered voters have cast ballots.

There is a corner of Compton that's nearly as Democratic as the Bill and Hillary Clinton household in New York. And part of La Mirada tilts so Republican, it's like Los Angeles County's own private Idaho. In every presidential election since 1988, a majority of county voters favored the Democratic nominee. But the region's political tent proved big enough in 2000 to accommodate a precinct where George W.

The registration of millions of new voters across the nation has raised the prospect of a surge of first-time voters on election day, but it remains hotly disputed whether their ballots will alter the outcome of the presidential election. This year's increase in new registrants appears driven by voters' increasing sense that the stakes are high in the Nov. 2 contest -- following a historically tight 2000 presidential race, a controversial war and a polarizing presidency.

Imperial County reported the lowest voter turnout in the state in Tuesday's election, despite a presidential primary, several contested local seats and major state and local bond initiatives. Less than 30% of registered voters cast ballots, according to an unofficial report from the Imperial County Elections Department. That percentage could increase as absentee and provisional ballots are tallied.

-- Supervisor District 1 -- -- 100% Precincts Reporting Votes % John B. Gostovich 9,524 65 Salud Carbajal 5,173 35 -- -- District 3 -- -- 100% Precincts Reporting Votes % Brooks Firestone 10,352 53 John Buttny 7,204 37 Steven Andrew Pappas 1,250 6 Slick Gardner 590 3 -- -- District 4 -- -- 100% Precincts Reporting Votes % Joni Gray 13,226 79 Gerry Niesen 3,563 21...

-- Statewide 100% Precincts Reporting Votes % Democrat Barbara Boxer 2,246,373 100 Republican Bill Jones 892,506 45 Rosario Marin 402,358 20 Howard Kaloogian 221,024 11 Toni C. Casey 125,583 6 Timothy Oliver Stoen 112,124 6 James Stewart 70,703 4 Barry L. Hatch 63,713 3 John M. Van Zandt 51,566 3 Danney Ball 33,667 2 Bill Quraishi 28,967 1 American Independent Don Grundmann 28,704 100 Libertarian James Gray 12,219 57 Gail Lightfoot 9,176...

The hunt for the Democrats' 2004 presidential candidate isn't the only anticipated process finally getting underway today with the Iowa caucuses. For the broadcast and cable news networks, it's also the first full-fledged "live" test of a new polling and vote-count operation that they hope will save them from the embarrassment of election night 2000.