Ucla Anderson Forecast

Wall Street may be seeing glimmers of a recovery, but UCLA economists are coming out with a new forecast today that offers a grim picture of the year ahead. Nationwide, the unemployment rate will worsen -- peaking late next year at 10.5%. And in California, which has been battered by tumbling housing, retail and manufacturing sectors, the jobless rate will soar to 11.9% by mid-2010, the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast says.

California commercial real estate developers and their bankers are growing optimistic about their industry's prospects, a report said. Although the national economy has given mixed signals in the last six months, California's markets for office and industrial space have made progress, albeit uneven, according to the semiannual Allen Matkins UCLA Anderson Forecast. "The progress, such as it is, has been driven by the steady employment gains in coastal California," the report said.

Contrary to claims by Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the Lone Star State isn't stealing California's jobs, workers or prosperity, according to a UCLA study. The study, part of UCLA's quarterly forecast Wednesday, tries to put the kibosh on a rivalry between the states. Perry, for instance, has boasted about "hunting trips" to California to recruit companies from the state. Texas is one of many Western states trying to capitalize on the perception that California is a difficult place for business.

California employers added nearly 12,000 jobs in September, the second straight month of employment growth. But the pace of hiring wasn't enough to make a significant dent in the state's unemployment rate. The jobless rate last month fell to 11.9% from 12.1% in August, the California Employment Development Department said. That's still well above the national unemployment rate of 9.1%. The unemployment rate in Los Angeles County slid slightly to 12.4%, from 12.5% the previous month.

California stands to gain some jobs this year but recovery will be sluggish, and the state's inland areas will bear the brunt of the continuing economic pain, according to a forecast scheduled to be released Tuesday by UCLA's Anderson School of Business. The state's unemployment rate will average 12.1% this year, economists said, and will not return to single-digit levels until 2012. "We're going to have slow growth this year, accelerating in 2011 and 2012," said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

"Buyers Play Wait and See," Sept. 10, quoted Edward Leamer of UCLA Anderson Forecast. He has been forecasting a falling sky since he took that position. Anyone who paid heed to his Chicken Little forecasts over the last several years has suffered significant opportunity costs. Can't you find someone to quote who actually has some skin in the game and isn't locked up in an ivory tower? DALIA WOOD Belmont

Regarding "Some Economists See Risk of a Downturn," Sept. 8: How scary. Sell the stocks. Put the house on the market. But then, as I read further, the article explains that the UCLA Anderson Forecast says that there is only "a 10% chance of a recession" and that "the odds of such an unpleasant event are slight." With a 90% probability of growth and no recession, how did you ever come up with such a deceptive and misleading headline? Glynn Morris Playa del Rey

Robert M. Williams, a retired business economics professor and founder of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, died Thursday of heart failure. He was 88. Williams, who served on UCLA's business school faculty for more than 30 years, opened the economic forecasting operation now known as the UCLA Anderson Forecast in 1952. The center remains one of the nation's few university-based economic forecasting groups, and its predictions are followed by business analysts across the country.

Should sunburn be added to the list of demons tormenting California's economy? University of Texas researchers say yes, pointing to a new study that suggests scorched skin takes a toll on company profits in coastal communities around the country. Surveyors interviewed nearly 100 sun worshippers at Galveston, Texas, beaches and found that 16% of those who were sunburned said they missed an average of two workdays annually because of blistered bodies.

Apartment industry specialists will present practical techniques to help investors make buying and selling decisions, and will provide forecasts of local property values June 24 at the first Apartment Building Forecast Conference, hosted by the Center for Real Estate at UCLA's Anderson School of Business and CB Richard Ellis. The conference, scheduled for 9 a.m. to 1 p.m.

Contrary to claims by Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the Lone Star State isn't stealing California's jobs, workers or prosperity, according to a UCLA study. The study, part of UCLA's quarterly forecast Wednesday, tries to put the kibosh on a rivalry between the states. Perry, for instance, has boasted about "hunting trips" to California to recruit companies from the state. Texas is one of many Western states trying to capitalize on the perception that California is a difficult place for business.

The malaise that has settled over the California economy will not lift until the middle of next year, according to a forecast to be released Wednesday by the UCLA Anderson School of Business. The state's unemployment rate will average 12.2% for 2010 and will remain in double digits until the fourth quarter of 2012, the forecast said. That's a weaker showing than UCLA economists had anticipated. "California is growing slowly, but is laying the groundwork for faster growth in 2011 and 2012," said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

California stands to gain some jobs this year but recovery will be sluggish, and the state's inland areas will bear the brunt of the continuing economic pain, according to a forecast scheduled to be released Tuesday by UCLA's Anderson School of Business. The state's unemployment rate will average 12.1% this year, economists said, and will not return to single-digit levels until 2012. "We're going to have slow growth this year, accelerating in 2011 and 2012," said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

Defying some analysts' predictions of a slow and subpar U.S. recovery, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco are predicting a rapid economic rebound. Citing growth in both consumer and business spending, economists Justin Weidner and John C. Williams said recovery "is likely to be faster than from the two previous recessions" in a report released Monday. Recent wild swings on Wall Street, tepid April retail sales figures and fears of global contagion from the Greek debt crisis have some worried that the improving U.S. economy could easily reverse course.

California's unemployment rate in February held steady at 12.5% for a second straight month, indicating that the state's economy may be leveling off and could turn upward by late spring. But economists warned that even sizable jumps in key activities, such as retail sales, international trade and orders for big-ticket manufactured goods, probably wouldn't lead to a big drop in jobless figures this year. One sign supporting that forecast came in the state Employment Development Department report released Friday.

Encouraging reports on both national and state employment released Friday indicate that the long-awaited economic recovery may be gaining a bit of traction. The U.S. unemployment rate in February held steady at 9.7%, the Labor Department said, as the economy lost 36,000 jobs. That's far fewer than economists had expected, and it was a welcome sign of improvement amid recent fears about a double-dip recession. Markets rallied on the news. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 122 points, or nearly 1.2%, to close at 10,566.

Re "Is L.A.'s middle class coming back?" Current, April 8 United Way's Bill Pitkin rightfully questions the newly released UCLA Anderson Forecast, which reports that income inequality in Los Angeles declined from 2000 to 2005. Pitkin points out that L.A. vastly lags the rest of country in some important personal wealth measurements. He also states that the loss of aerospace jobs in the 1990s precipitated the loss of many middle-class jobs. Thankfully, I left the aerospace industry before the downturn.

Despite the housing downturn, the California and U.S. economies are headed for a "soft landing" because trouble in one sector alone is not enough to trigger a recession, UCLA economists said in a quarterly forecast to be released today. California could have a soft landing -- slowing growth but without recession -- as long as its economic woes are limited to the housing sector, economist Ryan Ratcliff said in the UCLA Anderson Forecast outlook.