Yale Hirsch

Forget the food and drug stocks. If you're hunting for a cheap stock with strong earnings growth pretty much assured into 1991, Van Nuys-based Pinkerton's Inc. may be it. Pinkerton's is the $534-million (annual revenue) giant of the security guard business. It was formed in January, 1988, when California Plant Protection--the guard agency that provided security for the 1984 Olympics, among other big events--bought rival Pinkerton's from conglomerate American Brands Inc.

People naturally grow hopeful about their investments as one year winds down and a new one approaches. This time around, there actually may be some theories to justify such optimism. A couple of interesting seasonal factors are converging in 1995 that could make the year a profitable one for stock-fund investors. Such factors don't work perfectly, of course, but their track records over time have been impressive--and fun to follow.

At The Times' Investment Strategies Conference at the end of May, fund manager Garrett Van Wagoner, considered by many to be a superstar stock picker, frustrated a conga line of audience members. One after the other, they stepped up to the mike and asked for his opinion of a tech prospect. Some he liked, some he didn't, but each answer ended with the same caveat: He wouldn't get near it between June and September.

War, or even the threat of it, is always hell for the stock market. And if it brings inflation and recession rather than an economic tonic, it could be anguishing indeed for investors. Although the market can rebound nicely after the onset of war--as it did in World War II and the Korean conflict--the Mideast hostilities that started with Iraq's Aug. 2 invasion of Kuwait could usher in a punishing bear market, some stock watchers say.

A lot has been said and written about the presidential-election cycle, the tendency of stocks to do better in the two years preceding an election than in the two years following one. If you had invested in equity mutual funds on the basis of this phenomenon, you would have been nicely rewarded. Though the market has been flat for most of 1992, it's still more than one-quarter higher than it was at the start of 1991.

Stock prices ended on a positive note Friday, closing out a choppy week with a solid gain pinned on hopes that interest rates are headed lower and inflation will remain in check. Trading was active, supported by the continuing bond market rally, but with special attention focusing on issues due to pay dividends soon. The Dow Jones index of 30 industrial stocks closed at 1,958.22, up 28.18 points. For the week it rose 54.

* Stocks staged their traditional pre-Thanksgiving Day rally, helped by spillover buying from Tuesday and reports pointing to a strengthening economy. The Dow Jones industrials rose 17.56 points to 3,266.26, while the NASDAQ index of smaller stocks again hit a record. * Treasury bond yields inched up in abbreviated pre-holiday trading, though the market showed remarkable restraint given the good economic news.

The stock market's technicians advised in October that things were looking up--because they'd been looking down for so long, a rebound of some kind seemed almost a sure bet. And so it came: The market took a sharp jump in November, closing the month with a big rally Friday that lifted the Dow industrials 40.84 points to 2,559.65. For the month, the Dow rose 4.8%, and broader indexes did even better. After five straight losing months, investors hoping for a turnaround finally got it.

With the Dow Jones industrial index down more than 75 points on Monday, how should an investor react? Here is what some stock market analysts and investment letter editors think the smart investor should do now: Yale Hirsch, editor of Smart Money, an investment newsletter published in Old Tappan, N.J.: "My advice has been that the year-end makes a great exit (time) for the stock market. That is because, over the years since 1953, there have been about 10 bear markets.

When Democrat Harry S. Truman defeated Republican Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 in one of the biggest presidential upsets ever, the stock market suffered its own form of upset. On the day following the election, the Dow Jones industrial index tumbled 3.8%, as generally Republican Wall Streeters greeted the news with dismay. Today, as American voters select a new President, market pundits say something similar to 1948 could happen again if Democrat Michael S.